The simulation is a cross-sectional thought experiment, not a time-series prediction. Each draw samples independent normal noise around a linear score and clips the result to 0–100. Its range reflects chosen noise only; it is not a historical confidence interval. Shared shocks and institutional feedback are not modeled.
Edit the coefficient matrix to test competing hypotheses. Columns correspond to the six controls, normalized to 0–1. Negative coefficients are allowed. Results follow the assumptions you supply.
Equations, reproducibility, and research use
score[j] = clamp(intercept[j] + Σ coefficient[j,k] × input[k]/100 + σ × Normal(0,1), 0, 100)
2,000 draws per outcome; seeded Mulberry32 generator; Box–Muller normal noise.
Reported quantiles: 10th, 50th, 90th percentile. Same seed and assumptions reproduce results.
Default coefficients and presets are author-selected hypotheses, not fitted statistical estimates.
No welfare weights, causal identification, or objective ranking is implied.
To make empirical predictions, first define outcomes and a country-year sample; merge versioned V-Dem, WGI, OECD or World Bank observations; pre-register controls; account for confounding, reverse causality, missing data and dependence; validate out of sample. Pure ideological ideals often lack comparable national cases. This edition does not claim that work has been completed.